Independent candidate Alan Caron is expected to decide after the next couple of debates about whether he’ll drop out of the race for governor.Caron, a longtime economic development and political consultant, wrote in March that he would get out of the race if polls showed in October that he can’t win. Caron also indicated that he would make his decision in mid-October.
“Here’s my pledge to Maine voters: If it is clear by mid-October that I cannot win the election, I will publicly withdraw from the race. Plain and simple,” Caron wrote in a column in the Portland Press Herald. “That is exactly what I publicly urged Eliot Cutler to do during the 2014 campaign and privately recommended to Libby Mitchell four years earlier.”
Tom Bell, a spokesman for Caron’s campaign, said Wednesday that Caron will participate in at least two more debates, including one hosted by Maine Public Television on Sunday, before making a decision.
Caron has been under pressure to fulfill his pledge because polls show that his campaign is not gaining momentum and there are fears among Democrats that he could draw votes from Democratic nominee Janet Mills and split the center-left electorate, thereby helping Republican Shawn Moody win the four-way contest.
Such concerns stem from Republican Gov. Paul LePage’s 2010 victory in which he won with 38 percent of the vote after independent Eliot Cutler and Democrat Libby Mitchell split the center-left vote. Fears that the split could happen again prompted many progressives to back the 2016 ballot initiative to use ranked-choice voting in Maine elections.
While the initiative passed, a conflict in the Maine Constitution prompted election officials to use it only in congressional contests, not the gubernatorial election -- an outcome that has confused and frustrated some who have voted absentee this fall.
Even if Caron drops out, Mills’ path to the Blaine House is still complicated by another independent, Terry Hayes, a former Democrat who has vowed to stay in the contest.
There have been few public polls of the race. Some have suggested that Mills is leading while others have her deadlocked with Moody.
But all of the surveys suggest that Hayes is the stronger of the two independents. While her chances of winning continue to be a longshot, she could still affect the outcome.
Her ability to get her message to voters is unclear. Hayes has received more than $1 million through Maine’s public campaign financing law. But her bid to boost her profile with voters has been costly, raising questions about whether she has the financial resources to make a final push at a time when voters are paying close attention to the election.
Publicly available disclosure of television ad buys from Maine’s broadcast networks show that Hayes’ stopped running ads Oct. 2. She continues to run ads on radio and digital platforms. Kyle Bailey, Hayes’s campaign manager, said earlier this week that decisions about television ad buys will be made “week to week.”
Campaign finance reports from mid-September showed that Hayes had a little over $200,000 cash on hand. The Maine Ethics Commission, which administers the state’s public campaign finance program, confirmed this week that Hayes qualified for a $175,000 supplemental payment earlier in October.
Both Moody and Mills reported cash balances of roughly $400,000 in mid-September. Both candidates continue to furiously fund raise, and their campaigns have been boosted by over $7 million in ad spending by outside groups that are allowed to spend unlimited amounts to influence voters.
No outside groups have entered the contest to spend on Hayes’s behalf. According to the Maine Ethics Commission, she is unable to earn more supplemental payments from Maine Clean Elections Act.
Meanwhile, her campaign is attempting to counter the narrative that she’s siphoning votes from Mills. It has sent several press releases stating the polls show that Moody cannot win and that Hayes is pulling support from conservatives.
“Data is stubborn,” Bailey said in a release. “Republicans have a choice either to unite with independents, third party voters, and reform-minded Democrats to elect State Treasurer Terry Hayes as Maine’s next Governor, or settle into life with Janet Mills in the Blaine House for eight years with, quite possibly, Democratic control of both houses of the Maine Legislature.”
But Jonathan Brown, a canvasser for the Maine People's Alliance, a progressive advocacy group, says he's encountering center-left voters who plan to vote for Hayes first and Mills second.
But they can’t because ranked-choice voting - pushed by many of Hayes’ campaign operatives two years ago - will be used Nov. 6.
"There haven't been too many people that are misinformed about our use of ranked-choice voting for this November's election,” Brown says. “But I do believe there's been enough that it would make a difference in the election.”
Brown says many of those he's talked to say they'll vote for Mills after they learn that ranked-choice won't be used in the governor’s race.
Maine Public Television will air the gubernatorial debate Sunday at 8 p.m.
