Spending in the race for governor is already setting new records, and spending in other top-of-the-ticket races may also set new records. What impact will all that cash buying up all available television airtime have on other contests?
Make no mistake about it, if you watch TV, listen to radio, read a newspaper, check your Facebook account or read your mail this fall, you will be bombarded with political messages. Maine advertising rates are cheap, compared to many other states, and that means outside groups seeking to influence the governor’s race and the congressional contests will be spending a lot of money in the state.
"Given the levels of competition in this year’s races, we are going to see not just record spending on television advertising, but the use of any means available to get a candidate's message out," says Colby College Government Professor Tony Corrado.
That means social media, direct mail flyers, literature drops by volunteers, and radio. University of Maine Political Science Professor Mark Brewer says with all the up-ticket TV buys scooping up available time, legislative candidates may find radio ads are more available, and often a better buy for reaching their districts.
"I think radio can be very effective in those types of races," Brewer says. "You get, certainly, more bang for the buck going on radio, where you can target, than on TV."
Mike Franz, a professor of government at Bowdoin College, says all of the interest and advertising at the top of the ticket may well impact legislative races by increasing voter turnout. "Certainly harder to get your name out there in a crowded field," Franz says. "But in tight competitive races at the top of the ticket, more people are paying attention, and more people are turning out."
In addition to the candidate races, there is the bear hunting referendum and five bonding proposals on the ballot. Tony Corrado says campaigns for those issues will be hard pressed to reach voters on television because of all of the candidate advertising.
"It’s going to be very difficult, particularly with respect to the referendum campaigns, to see much advertising on their behalf, or to generate much voter attention, simply because of the fact that so much attention is going to be directed at the governor’s race," Franz says.
Franz says that certainly is true for the bond questions, but he believes the referendum to limit bear baiting, hounding and the use of traps is so unique that it will generate a lot of interest, even without the kind of big advertising battles occurring at the top of the ticket.
"It is interesting enough on its own to get people talking," Franz says. "That may stand out for people, and the advertising may, or the discussions and media surrounding that may, break through some of the candidate-specific messaging."
All three say the increased levels of spending for all types of media at the top of the ticket will drive higher spending in legislative races. They point out it’s not just top-of-the-ticket races than have expenditures by independent groups - so will legislative races and the referenda campaigns. If a campaign can’t buy TV time because it is sold out, they will increase efforts in other media. But, says Mark Brewer, what an analyst said on an NPR broadcast earlier this week will also hold true in Maine.
"They said that the big winner in the 2014 election cycle nationwide isn’t going to be the Democrats or the Republicans, it will be people that own local television stations," he says, "and I think that is absolutely true."
And all three say if you are already tired of the back-to-back political messages when you watch your local TV stations, they warn you ain’t seen nothing yet.
