AUGUSTA, Maine - Registered Democrats and Republicans in Maine are receiving fliers in the mail from both party headquarters urging them to fill out absentee ballot applications for next month's election. Although the results are confidential, the response to that mailing does offer some insight into the level of voter enthusiasm for party candidates.
More than 30,000 Mainers have already requested absentee ballot forms, and Maine Secretary of State Matt Dunlap says that's just the beginning. "What you’re going to see over the next three weeks, three-and-a-half weeks, is that number of absentee ballot is going to explode - especially that last week," Dunlap says.
Four years ago, nearly 150,000 Mainers cast absentee ballots, and Dunlap says those numbers could also run high this year. "So politically, if you're in one of the major parties and you're looking at those numbers, those are numbers that you can't ignore," he says, "and you want to make sure that you include in your voter outreach plan an absentee ballot program."
The results of these ballots remain secret until recorded by the local registrar of voters. And while absentee voters can split the ticket, endorsing any combination of Democrats, Republicans or independents, Dunlap says that, more often than not, the results favor the party that sent out the flier.
"Generally speaking, as a general sentiment, both for the Democrats and the Republicans - and the Greens, too - is that their voters are going to vote their ticket," Dunlap says. "That's not always the case because it is a secret ballot, but that's the general inference, is that if I send an absentee ballot reminder with an application form to people in my party, that they’re going to vote for my ticket."
And while that would be a clear advantage to a major party candidate, the same cannot be said for an independent. Four years ago, when independent Eliot Cutler narrowly lost to Republican Gov. Paul LePage he cited absentee balloting as a major obstacle to his campaign, as these voters had made their choice before his momentum of support had reached its peak. The Cutler campaign is trying to convince voters to wait until all of the debates have been staged and aired before casting absentee ballots.
"We're just finally seeing them sit down together so that people have a chance to compare and contrast policies and see who will be the best leader," says Cutler spokeswoman Crystal Canney. "There's no harm in waiting."
Dunlap acknowledges that, in a tight race, absentee ballots can make a difference. He also thinks people may wait to vote - but for different reasons.
"I think I represent that stick-in-the-mud demographic that really wants to go to the polls on Election Day and vote," Dunlap says. 'I like to go to the town office to buy my hunting license. I can do this stuff online. I can do stuff remotely. I can do it by absentee, but I like to go and do the actual civic act in person. And I think a lot of people feel that way."
Dunlap says that in this off-year election cycle, absentee ballot requests are not expected to reach the level they did in 2008, when more than 230,000 ballots were returned.