A recent report from the Moody's credit rating agency said Maine is in a recession or at high risk of falling into one.
Maine economists dispute that but said there are troubling signs a recession could be on the way in the next year.
In a statement, the Maine state economist said data show Maine is currently not in a recession.
Unemployment is at 3.2%, below the national average. And the number of nonfarm seasonally adjusted wage and salary jobs has decreased just slightly.
But uncertainty amid federal policy changes, tariffs and global conditions, the state said, will impact Maine's economic growth.
Paul Shea, an economics professor at Bates College, said the cooling labor market shows employers are uncertain about what's ahead and layoffs that could plunge the nation into a recession are possible.
"At some point either firms will become optimistic and pick their hiring back up or they'll say tough times are ahead and we can't afford to hold onto these workers and layoffs would come," Shea said.
But he believes housing data are a better predictor of where the economy is headed.
"No matter how you look at it. Whether you're looking at sales or construction, housing is in a tough place right now," Shea said. "That's concerning because it suggests the economy is heading to an even worse place in the next few months."
Shea said he thinks there is a 60 percent chance the overall economy will fall into a recession in the next year. And if the nation falls into a recession, he said Maine is likely to do so as well.
See the latest employment and unemployment report here.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia published a coincident economic index in July that said Maine's index was up 1.5% year-over-year, the highest YoY growth since Dec 2023.
