The debates are over in this year's three-way battle for the Blaine House. And with a week to go in the governor's race, the campaigns have moved away from the policy messaging and are focused on working hard to deplete each other's base of support. And the get-out-the-vote effort is also in full frenzy.
For weeks, the campaign of Democrat Mike Michaud has insisted that its only real opponent is Republican Gov. Paul LePage. Michaud stuck to a promise not to appear in any debate in which LePage was not present. But in this last week before polls open next Tuesday, Michaud supporters have focused their attention on the other candidate in the race, independent Eliot Cutler.
"I'm Linda Matzen from Auburn and I supported Eliot Cutler in the last election. On Nov. 4, I will be voting for Mike Michaud." Matzen was a speaker at a Portland rally called by NextGen Climate Maine, where several former Cutler supporters vowed their new allegiance to Michaud.
The press conference came on the heels of a weekend poll from the Portland Press Herald that gave LePage a 10-point lead over Michaud, held Cutler to 16 percent and claimed that only 4 percent of the voters are undecided. Today, a New York Times-CBS poll portrayed the race as much tighter, with Michaud at 37 percent, LePage at 35 percent, and Cutler at only 7 percent - with more than 20 percent undecided.
Tomorrow, another poll is scheduled to be released. And Democrats will continue to use the data to apply pressure on Cutler supporters to abandon their candidate and support Michaud, in order to defeat LePage.
At Bowdoin College, Political Science Professor Michael Franz says the stakes for the Blaine House have never been higher, and voters should be prepared for a media onslaught. "Well I think they're going to see pretty much everything thrown at the wall," Franz says.
That's because Republicans are depending on Cutler voters to dilute Michaud's support. The Michaud campaign, meanwhile, is attempting to convince Cutler supporters to defect, or risk re-electing LePage. And Cutler has called on Michaud to release his supporters so they can vote for him.
Franz says this is what Mainers can expect when a traditional two-way race turns into a three-way contest.
"So it becomes about either a sort of paranoia on the part of the Democrats that Cutler is going to spoil their efforts, probably joy on the part of the Cutler people that they're this relevant at the end of the campaign, and, meanwhile, a sit-back-and-watch from the LePage people as Michaud and Cutler sort of battle out the LePage vote," Franz says.
"People are doing the exact same thing that they did four years ago and they're going to have the same result," says Cutler Campaign Manager Ted O'Meara. O'Meara says Cutler made a late surge four years ago, and almost beat Lepage - and could do it again this time. "So instead of thinking how to vote strategically, voters should really just vote for who they think is the best candidate," he says.
But University of Maine Political Science Professor Mark Brewer says that, despite's Cutler's efforts, a certain segment of his supporters will fall into the "anybody-but-LePage" camp and will vote strategically. "That's the portion of the electorate where this kind of message about viability is going to really have the big payoff, I think," Brewer says.
Among them are self-described former Cutler supporters, such as Jackie Sartoris, who say they will now support Michaud. "If I could, I'd say to Cutler supporters something my kids have heard a lot at home: 'You can't always get what you want - sometimes you get what you need,' " Sartoris says.
All three candidates will find out whether they got what they needed from voters next Tuesday.