On Tuesday, Maine voters will settle long-running policy debates over voter ID and guns during an off-year election that has been overshadowed by events in DC and primary contests that won't be decided until next year.
Questions 1 and 2 are the only issues on ballots statewide. While millions of dollars have been spent on the campaigns, some voters likely still have questions given the stark differences in how supporters and opponents are portraying the initiatives.
So in this edition of the Political Pulse, we'll provide an overview of the two questions, recap the arguments for and against them, and provide other information that might be helpful as voters head to the polls.
Question 1: Voter ID and absentee ballots
Question 1 reads: "Do you want to change Maine election laws to eliminate two days of absentee voting, prohibit requests for absentee ballots by phone or family members, end ongoing absentee voter status for seniors and people with disabilities, ban prepaid postage on absentee ballot return envelopes, limit the number of drop boxes, require voters to show certain photo ID before voting, and make other changes to our elections?"
Although lengthy, that question still doesn't capture all of the changes that are incorporated into the 11-page bill that backers hope will become law. But it can be broken down into two parts: a voter ID section, and a section making multiple changes to Maine's absentee voting process.
The voter ID provisions are pretty straightforward: beginning next year, all voters would have to produce a photo identification — such as a driver's license, passport, military ID or a state-issued nondriver ID card — in order to cast a ballot. Voters would also have to provide their driver’s license number or a photocopy of their ID to the local clerk while applying for an absentee ballot.
Thirty six other states require voters to show some form of ID, although not all of them have to feature a photograph. So Maine is in the minority.
Supporters argue that requiring a photo ID to cast a ballot enhances election security by reducing the risk of voter fraud. This is the part of the proposal those supporters have largely campaigned on. In fact, the group leading the Q1 charge is called Voter ID for ME.
Opponents, meanwhile, have directed most of their attacks on the proposed changes to absentee balloting. Those changes include:
- Eliminating two days of absentee balloting
- No longer allowing absentee ballot requests via phone or requests on behalf of an immediate family member
- Ending the program that allows voters age 65 or older and disabled voters to have ballots automatically mailed to them each election. That automatic-delivery option will be available to all voters next year unless Question 1 becomes law.
- Limiting municipalities to one ballot drop box.
- Requiring a bipartisan team to retrieve ballots from drop boxes each day.
- Prohibiting towns from including prepaid postage on ballot return envelopes.
Absentee voting is increasingly popular in Maine. During the 2024 presidential elections, more than 40% of voters in Maine cast absentee ballots.
Supporters of Question 1 say those changes will improve Maine’s system and enhance election integrity as absentee balloting becomes more popular. Opponents, meanwhile, argue that Maine’s election system is already very safe, with almost no incidents of fraud and plenty of safeguards (such as ballot tracking) already built into the absentee voting process.
Instead, they accuse the conservative groups pushing Question 1 of trying to disenfranchise or suppress votes. They predict the voter ID provisions will disproportionately impact the elderly, minorities and people who don’t drive, even though the law requires Maine’s secretary of state to issue nondriver photo IDs for free to any adults who need them. And opponents contend that the changes to absentee balloting will disenfranchise voters and make casting a ballot more difficult at a time when voters are demanding the opposite.
Who are the groups on either side of Question 1?
The petition drive to get Question 1 on the ballot was led by a conservative political action committee called Dinner Table Action and its sister group For Our Future. Both groups have been led by conservative political organizer Alex Titcomb and Rep. Laurel Libby, R-Auburn. And the groups have emerged as high-profile players and prolific fundraisers in Republican politics in recent years.
The Voter ID for ME campaign had received the bulk of its money — $525,000 of its roughly $600,000 — from the national PAC called the Republican State Leadership Committee.
The opposition, meanwhile, has been led by a group called Save Maine Absentee Voting. This is a coalition of more than 30 groups ranging from the League of Women Voters and the Maine People’s Alliance to the AFL-CIO labor union and the Wabanaki Alliance.
They’ve also received a lot of financial support from national groups and labor unions, including the National Education Association ($250,000), the Service Employees International Union ($125,000) and Democracy Fund Voice ($100,000).
Question 2: The ‘red flag’ proposal
Question 2 reads: “Do you want to allow courts to temporarily prohibit a person from having dangerous weapons if law enforcement, family, or household members show that the person poses a significant danger of causing physical injury to themselves or others?”
This citizens initiative proposes what’s known as a “red flag” gun law allowing family or members of a household to directly petition a judge to order someone to temporarily surrender their guns. Also known as “extreme risk protection orders,” red flag laws provide a pathway for police or family to temporarily separate someone from their guns if they are suicidal or could pose a threat to other people.
Maine already has had a similar but not identical law in effect since 2020. But the differences between the two are at the center of the debate over Question 2.
Under Maine’s current yellow flag law, only police can go to a judge to start the process. The law also requires police to take the individual into “protective custody” and then have them undergo a mental health evaluation. If a medical professional determines the person poses a threat to themselves or others, police can then ask a judge to order them to surrender their weapons.
Under the red flag proposal, family members could go straight to a judge — they wouldn’t have to involve police. Question 2 also does not require the mental health evaluation.
Supporters of Question 2 argue that the October 2023 mass shootings in Lewiston prove the inadequacy of Maine’s yellow flag law. Family and friends repeatedly raised concerns about the gunman’s deteriorating mental health and access to guns in the months before he killed 18 people. But local police never invoked the yellow flag law. Adding a red flag law in Maine, they argue, would give families an additional option, especially in situations where they fear involving the police could escalate an already dangerous situation.
Opponents of Question 2, meanwhile, point out that Maine’s yellow flag law has been used more than 1,000 times since October 2023. And they argue that the Lewiston mass shooting resulted from authorities failing to use the yellow flag law, not from any failing in the law itself.
But supporters of Question 2 argue that the yellow flag law is overly restrictive, time consuming for law enforcement and wrongly uses mental illness as a precursor to violence. Opponents, meanwhile, counter that the mental health evaluation required under yellow flag better protects the due process rights of gun owners.
Question 2 would not replace Maine’s yellow flag law, however. If enacted, both laws would stay on the books. To supporters, that would provide another “tool in the toolbox” for both police and family. But opponents predict the red flag law will merely undermine a law that has been used, on average, more than once a day since the Lewiston shootings to remove guns from potentially suicidal or homicidal people.
Who are the groups on either side of Question 2?
The Maine Gun Safety Coalition and its allies collected the voter signatures necessary to place Question 2 on the ballot after years of failing to get “red flag” bills through the Maine Legislature. The Yes on 2 campaign’s committee, called Safe Schools, Safe Communities, had raised nearly $900,000 as of the last reporting period. The largest single donation of $100,000 came from GIFFORDS, the national gun control organization created by former U.S. Rep. Gabby Giffords of Arizona, who has become a vocal advocate on gun safety since she was severely injured during a mass shooting in 2011.
The campaign has been endorsed by the Maine Medical Association and other health groups in the state as well as the Maine Council of Churches and the League of Women Voters.
The No on 2 campaign has been led by the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine, Gun Owners of Maine and several smaller allied groups. The two campaign organizations created by opponents — Protect ME - No Red Flag and Keep Maine Safe — had raised about $140,000 as of the last reporting period.
That is significantly less than than supporters of the red flag proposal. However, the groups have high-profile allies in their campaign against the red flag proposal, most notably Gov. Janet Mills. A Democrat who previously served as a prosecutor and the state’s attorney general, Mills helped to negotiate the yellow flag law in 2019 with a bipartisan group of lawmakers and the leader of the Sportsman’s Alliance of Maine, David Trahan, as an alternative to a red flag proposal.
Mills has come out strongly against Question 2, as have the Maine Fraternal Order of Police, the Maine State Police and the Maine State Troopers Association.
What are the predictions for Tuesday?
Voter turnout is likely to be relatively low since this is an off-year election and the two referendum questions are the only issues on the statewide ballot. Many towns and cities are holding local elections, however, so turnout could be higher in some areas.
The groups opposing Question 1 and supporting Question 2 have significantly outspent the other sides in their respective campaigns. That could help in the crucial get-out-the-vote effort. But all campaigns are planning aggressive grassroots activities this weekend through Tuesday.
A poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center suggests that both races are too close to call. The survey had Question 1 supporters trailing opponents by a single percentage point with 3% undecided. On Question 2, opponents of the red flag proposal were leading supporters by just 2 percentage points but 22% of respondents were still undecided.
This edition of Maine's Political Pulse was written by State House correspondent Kevin Miller and produced by news editor Andrew Catalina. Read past editions or listen to the Political Pulse podcast at mainepublic.org/pulse.
