AUGUSTA, Maine - Maine's rivers are in no immediate danger of flooding, but as the mercury rises, emergency management officials are concerned about problems caused by the melting snowpack.
It was a regularly scheduled meeting of the Maine River Flow Advisory Commission, and for Lynnette Miller, the spokesperson for the Maine Emergency Management Agency, the conversation is normally focused on Maine's big rivers: the Kennebec, the Penobscot and the Androscoggin.
"Normally at this time of year, we're focusing on the headwaters, the western mountains, which is where all the water from rivers comes from," Miller said. "This year, because of the enormous amount of snow and especially Down East, we're going to have to watch for the flood potential there because that rainstorm or sudden warm up could release an awful lot of water into those towns that have already been struggling with snow."
That means they might also be focused on smaller rivers, such as the St. Croix, Narraguagus and the Machias. Washington County has been on the receiving end of some of the heaviest snows ever recorded, with more than 82 inches falling in some areas of the county during February alone.
The short-term forecast for the next two weeks should remain seasonably cold, according to National Weather Service hydrologist Tom Hawley. But he says the potential for river flooding could be upgraded by the end of March or April.
"The reason for that is that we're going to go into the end of March with a fairly large snow pack on the ground - especially in southern areas," Hawley said. "The later into the spring season you go, the greater the chances of a rapid warm up, and getting rain on top of that snow pack. So I think all indications are it could be an above normal threat for flooding this year."
Hawley says ice conditions on the state's river are at about normal depths, but the snow pack has a thrown a huge wildcard into trying to predict what might happen in April, particularly in southern and Down East Maine.
"The smaller river basins in Maine could certainly be at risk: the Kennebunk River in York County, the Presumpscot River that flows through Westbrook, the Union River," Hawley said. "They are in areas that have well above normal snow pack right now. So we get two or three inches of rain on that and a 50-degree day, that's going to go into those rivers and certainly cause flooding. So that's one of our concerns also."
And while Maine's major rivers can look for some relief from the ice-breaking crews attached to the U.S. Coast Guard, Portland Cmdr. John Humpage says it is not possible to deploy those same assets to the state's smaller waterways.
"Our smallest ice-breaking unit is 65 feet long, it draws about 6 feet of depth of water. so things like the Royal River or similar rivers throughout southern Maine unfortunately, we just don't have the ice capable assets to break ice out of those smaller tidal rivers," Humpage said.
While ice depths on big rivers like the Penobscot have been at near normal depths, Humpage says the snow and slush have also created serious challenges for his ice-breaking crews this winter.
And the U.S. Coast Guard commander says it's anybody's guess what impact the recent removal of the Veazie Dam will have on ice flow during the spring thaw, "whereas the Veazie dam helped break up the ice and keep things down," said Humpage. "So we understand the concerns of the city of Bangor and Penobscot County, and that's why we're committed to doing what we can to prevent ice jam flooding along that river."
Humpage said the Coast Guard's largest ice breaker, the 140-foot Thunder Bay, cannot reach the site of the former Veazie Dam because river channel conditions require the vessel to turn south before it reaches Bangor's Joshua Chamberlain Bridge.