Democrats lead Republicans in the races for president, U.S. Senate and the 1st and 2nd Congressional Districts in Maine. That’s according to the latest Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll of 600 likely Maine voters conducted online Oct. 2-6.
The overall margin of error is 4.5 percent; 6.4 percent for congressional races.
In the contest for president, the poll shows Democrat Joe Biden leading Republican President Donald Trump in Maine by 10.6 percentage points, with 3.8 percent undecided.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Sara Gideon is leading Republican incumbent Susan Collins by a margin of 7.1 percentage points statewide. Independents Lisa Savage and Max Linn garner 5 percent and 2 percent of the vote respectively, and 6.4 percent say they’re undecided.
Most of the Mainers who say their first choice in the Senate is one of the two independent candidates also favor an independent candidate as their second choice, under ranked-choice voting.
While only 2 percent of those surveyed say Max Linn is their first choice, 62 percent of those voters named Lisa Savage as their second choice.
“Savage, who has 5 percent of the vote, again her supporters support the other independent, 40 percent of them in fact support the other independent, whereas Sara Gideon picks up 31.5 percent,” says Pan Atlantic Research President Patrick Murphy, and Susan Collins gets 12.5 percent.
Murphy says this raises the question of how much impact the transfer of votes will have if neither of the top two candidates hits 50 percent in the first round.
Pan Atlantic Research President Patrick Murphy says the low rates of undecideds in the presidential and Senate races show that most people have made up their minds.
“It’s not a very flexible electorate at this point in time, although who knows what October surprises one could see, which might shift things,” he says.
In the 1st District, the survey shows Democrat Chellie Pingree leading Republican Jay Allen by almost 20 percentage points, with 10.7 percent undecided. And in the 2nd District, Democrat Jared Golden is leading Republican Dale Crafts by almost 28 percentage points with just under 7 percent undecided.