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Coastal flooding, high winds in forecast as Hurricane Lee expected to skirt Maine

National Hurricane Center
Updated: September 13, 2023 at 11:34 AM EDT
Here's the latest storm update from the National Hurricane Center:

"At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Lee is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected by tonight, followed by an increase in speed on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New England or Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Lee is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days, however, Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches)."

Hurricane Lee's trajectory will veer eastward into the ocean and narrowly avoid direct landfall with Maine, according to models from the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Lee's trajectory comes down to whether it hits something called a trough: an area off the East Coast of low air pressure in the atmosphere. If Lee hits the trough, it will push the hurricane eastward away from the coastline and into the sea. If Lee misses the trough, the hurricane will make landfall instead.

Stephen Baron, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Gray, says the models created by the National Hurricane Center are based on data collected from weather balloons and other observational methods.

"Then we kind of take what we're seeing, look at the meteorology areas of low pressure that might be moving off, then make our best guess of which of those tracks seems the most reasonable," Baron says.

If the hurricane stays on its Eastward trajectory, Baron warns that Maine's mid-coast residents should look out for coastal flooding and very strong winds.

"When tropical storms get up this way they go through extra tropical transitioning. They become extra-tropical storms. The caveat with that is, yes, they're weakening; but their wind field also expands. So it is possible we could see high winds," Baron says.

If Lee takes a westward approach toward land, Maine could experience flooding rains as well as high winds. Baron says meteorologists will ultimately have more accurate projections as Lee approaches this weekend.

Nick Song is Maine Public's inaugural Emerging Voices Fellowship Reporter.


Originally from Southern California, Nick got his start in radio when he served as the programming director for his high school's radio station. He graduated with a degree in Journalism and History from the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern University -- where he was Co-News Director for WNUR 89.3 FM, the campus station.