As the battle for control of Congress intensifies, the race for the open seat in Maine's 2nd District is drawing increasing attention from the major parties and their allies in Washington. Within the past week, political action committees backing Democrat Emily Cain and Republican Bruce Poliquin have begun spending millions of dollars on TV attack ads. A poll last weekend showed Poliquin leading the race by 10 points. Cain calls that survey an aberration, and says her campaign has momentum and energy on the ground. But the increasing amount of outside money flowing into the race suggests it's close.
Right after Labor Day, voters in Maine's 2nd District began seeing the first TV ads of the fall election season.
Audio from ad: "He lost his wife, while their son was a toddler. He raised him, strengthening his belief in life and family. He spent decades in business, creating hundreds of jobs."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfL_tAZ-9v4
This spot sought to highlight Republican Bruce Poliquin's biography for 2nd District voters. Another focused on the what Democrat Emily Cain would do to help Maine's middle class in Washington.
Audio from ad: "To me, doing the right thing for Maine people means working with anyone and everyone who wants to get things done. It's time to give the middle class a place at the table. I'll vote to raise the minimum wage."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knDQ2mqu-Mg
Both of these ads, produced by the campaigns themselves, strike a decidedly more positive tone than the spots voters in the 2nd District have been watching over the past week.
Audio from ad: "A dangerous world, threatening America. We need to be energy independent, but Emily Cain would make us more reliant on Middle East oil. Cain opposes the Keystone Pipeline."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nNB5U-3cqM
This spot, from the National Republican Congressional Committee, begins with an ominous video of black-hooded terrorists, marching in formation with weapons. Another ad, meantime, attacks Bruce Poliquin. It's called "Up Here" and begins with a still photo of the upper floors of a skyscraper, then zooms to poorly-lighted shots of Poliquin reading and talking on a cell phone.
Audio from ad: "Up here, Bruce Poliquin made millions as a Wall Street banker and took over $20,000 from the insurance industry. No wonder Poliquin supports a radical plan that undermines Medicare."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HFvyw5dl10
The House Majority PAC has paid $270,000 to run this ad in Maine. The National Republican Congressional Committee is investing $1.5 million it its 2nd District ad campaign.
"We're starting to see the battle lines now of what we can expect in the next few weeks," says Anthony Corrado, a professor of government at Colby College, where he specializes in tracking campaign finance. Over the past month, Corrado says the race between Cain and Poliquin has lived up to its national billing.
"And my sense is that it was one of those races that was on the radar in Washington," he says. "Many of the party allies, groups that tend to associate with either the Democrats or the Republicans, are now concentrating money on the race because they see this as one of the toss-up races in the country that could lead from a Democratic-held seat to a Republican seat."
A poll over the weekend, in the Portland Press Herald, showed a surge of support for Poliquin, with the Republican getting 40 percent of the vote, compared to 30 percent for Cain and 3 percent for independent candidate Blaine Richardson.
The Poliquin campaign does not make the candidate available to the news media very often, preferring instead to communicate via occasional press releases. On its Facebook page, the campaign said the poll is proof that 2nd District voters want someone who will create jobs and represent their values.
Some analysts, though, says the survey's small sample size of just 220 likely voters, in such a large district, make the results hard to trust. "Seeing that kind of number, I think, it really is an outlier for us, with all the other data that we're seeing," says Cain. "And, quite frankly, it's just an outlier for what we're seeing on the ground."
Cain weighed in on the survey after being endorsed by Sen. Angus King at a morning event in Auburn. UMaine Political Science Professor Mark Brewer says the decision to make the announcement at Auburn Manufacturing, a plant that produces heat resistant textiles, was almost as important as the endorsement itself.
"I think it's absolutely crucial for the Cain campaign to really try and emphasize the part of her message that says she's out there, trying to work for the average Mainer," Brewer says, "that she's out there, looking out for them. and she understands them in a way that, at least in her opinion, her opponent can't do. And I think having that event at the manufacturing facility allows her to draw attention to that."
Both the Poliquin campaign and the Maine Republican Party noted, in statements on the King endorsement, that Cain and King both support ObamaCare, which Poliquin strongly opposes. In the coming weeks, the sniping - online, in person and on the airwaves - is likely to grow, as more outside money flows in on behalf of both candidates