AUGUSTA, Maine — Maine is generally not considered a major player when it comes to presidential party nominations, because it sends relatively few delegates to the national conventions. But candidates, and in particular Republicans, could pay a little more attention to the state in the next election.
The number of candidates seeking the GOP nomination for president seems to grow every week, and so far their focus has been on Iowa, with its early caucus, and on New Hampshire, with its first-in-the-nation primary. But Maine could draw some of the national political spotlight, depending on how Republicans here decide to select their 23 delegates.
The party is holding hearings before determining some crucial questions: Will delegates be pledged to a candidate based on caucus results or primary results, or will delegates not be bound at the national nominating convention?
Bowdoin College government and legal studies professor Mike Franz says the longer the campaign goes on, the more important Maine could become.
"If the battle is still up in the air and there's a number of Republicans who are fighting for every single delegate, then the decisions made by the Maine Republican Party could certainly matter," he says.
If Maine Republicans decide to stick with the caucus structure and mandate that the delegates to the national convention remain pledged to the caucus results, that could prompt one or more of the GOP hopefuls to try to win Maine at the expense of efforts in other states.
University of Maine Farmington political science professor Jim Melcher says a candidate with fewer resources could see their campaign dollars go further in a small caucus state than in a large primary state with expensive media markets.
"It amplifies the importance of small numbers of people to get committed, because caucuses are all about who shows up," he says.
University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer agrees, saying Iowa and other caucus states have shown candidates can have an effect that carries forward to other states by helping with momentum. And he says it also helps with fundraising.
"Caucuses generally tend to bring out the most committed partisans and also tend to highly reward boots on the ground and strong organization," Brewer says.
If Maine Republicans do not decide to have delegates committed to candidates based on caucus results, analysts believe that would lessen Maine's strategic value for the multitude of candidates. But Maine could attract more attention if it adopted a primary.
Maine once had a primary — in 1996, when U.S. Sen. Bob Dole won 46 percent of the 67,000 Republicans that voted.
Colby College government professor Tony Corrado says a primary could draw the interest from the candidates, as long as it wasn't timed to take place too far after the traditional New Hampshire primary in February.
"Whether it is a caucus or a primary is a very important decision because it is generally a decision as to whether you want to rest more of the voting control into the party regulars or the most loyal party members or whether you want to have broader participation," he says.
All four political observers say that a primary could generate interest in the party that could carry over into other election contests next year.
The GOP has held public hearings and will take written comments through next Sunday. The party committee that is considering the delegate selection process meets next week to make its recommendations.
