The Slacker's Guide To Maine's Midterm Election

In case you haven’t heard there is an election Tuesday. Some say it is the most important one — since the last one.

There is a lot at stake in Maine. There are three congressional seats on the ticket, as is the contest to decide who will replace outgoing Republican Gov. Paul LePage. Every single seat in the Maine Legislature is also up for grabs.

Here’s a last-minute overview of the races, a guide to why some of them will be decided differently than others, and a reminder that you can still show up on Election Day, even if you procrastinated on registering to vote:

The 2nd Congressional District race is one of the most heavily watched in the country, because it could determine whether Democrats can take power in the House of Representatives, an outcome that will have big consequences for President Donald Trump.

Not only is it the largest district east of the Mississippi, but it’s also very peculiar. If you recall, President Trump made history there two years ago when he swiped an electoral vote — a remarkable achievement given that President Barack Obama won handily there twice. But those results sort of affirmed what we already know, that the 2nd District is a swing district. Democrats have won there and Republicans have won there.

Republican U.S. Rep. Bruce Poliquin is trying to hold the seat amid the prospects of a Democratic wave election. Poliquin has incumbency on his side — no incumbent has lost since 1916 — but he’s got a tough challenger in Democrat Jared Golden, a state lawmaker and combat veteran.

Polls show that this is a very tight race, and there’s tons of money pouring in to influence the outcome.

There are also two independents who could affect the race, especially since voters will be using ranked-choice voting. That means the winner will need to get a majority vote to win.

There’s a three-way contest in the 1st Congressional District, where Democratic U.S. Rep. Chellie Pingree has held the seat for a decade. She’s facing a familiar foe in Republican challenger Mark Holbrook, who she beat easily two years ago during a GOP wave election. But also on the ballot is Marty Grohman, a former Democratic lawmaker who is now running as an independent.

There hasn’t been a lot of money in this race, which is a big contrast to the 2nd District and could be a signal that Pingree is in a good position, but you just really never know with ranked-choice voting, which could benefit Grohman.

Independent Angus King is looking for his second six-year term in the U.S. Senate. He’s facing Republican Eric Brakey and Democrat Zak Ringelstein.

It looks like King, the incumbent, is in control, but Brakey and Ringelstein have really tried to liven up the race, oftentimes getting into a battle with one another instead of focusing on King.

There hasn’t been a lot of good, reliable polling in the gubernatorial race, so it’s really tough to say how it will shake out. It may as well be neck and neck between Democrat Janet Mills, who could be the first woman elected governor of Maine, and Republican Shawn Moody, who is basically vowing to continue LePage’s legacy. Both are making big barnstorming pushes across the state, and both are focused on each other.

That’s not to say that independent Terry Hayes won’t be a factor — meaning she could affect the outcome even if she doesn’t win. That’s because unlike the congressional races, there’s no ranked-choice voting in this contest, so that means votes for Hayes could determine whether Moody or Mills end up in the governor’s office next year, even if she doesn’t win.

Mills supporters are very worried about what’s known as the split vote. They’ve been running ads saying that votes for Hayes are effectively votes for Moody because of the spoiler effect or the split vote.

Meanwhile, Republicans appear to be encouraging the split vote by saying Hayes and Mills are essentially the same — liberal politicians.

It’s a long and complicated story, but basically, the Maine Constitution has made it so ranked-choice voting won’t be used in the gubernatorial or legislative races, but it will be used in the congressional ones. That means voters will be allowed to rank their candidates in order of preference in the congressional races, but they’ll vote the old-fashioned way in the gubernatorial and legislative ones

Also, ranked-choice voting could also mean that we won’t know the winners for some time if nobody gets a majority on election night, and that’s barring any legal action that could take place if one of the candidates challenges whether ranked-choice voting can be used in any of the contests. That’s a possibility, especially in the 2nd District, where the race is expected to be very tight.

Maine has one of the highest voter participation rates in the country. In 2016, more than 73 percent of eligible Maine voters turned out on Election Day. It was lower in the 2014 midterm election, which is what this is, about 60 percent. That’s relatively normal for midterms when turnout is historically lower.

Maine is one of 16 states that allows what’s called same-day voter registration. That means people who are eligible to vote can register on Election Day and then vote. You need to answer a few basic questions such as whether you’re a U.S. citizen. You also need to provide your address, and while you don’t need a photo ID to vote in Maine it’s helpful to have your driver’s license, and if you don’t have one of those, you’ll be asked to provide the last four digits of your Social Security number or a Maine I.D. card. But that’s really all you need to vote on Election Day if you haven’t before.