Vice President Kamala Harris is leading Republican Donald Trump in the first poll of Maine voters since President Biden dropped out of the race.
Harris led Trump 48% to 40% when other potential candidates were factored in, according to the poll of more than 1,400 likely Maine voters conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 4% while three others — Jill Stein of the Green Party, Cornel West of the People's Party and Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party — each received support from 1% of respondents.
But the UNH poll shows Harris leading Trump 54% to 45% in Maine in a head-to-head contest with no other contenders. Harris has not yet been formally nominated but has already secured enough delegates to win the nomination before or during the Democratic National Convention next month.
Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center, pointed out that Biden beat Trump by nine percentage points in Maine four years ago and Harris now leads the Republican nominee by eight points. So Smith said the numbers are fairly similar "despite all of the things that have gone on over the last four years."
"Overall if you just look at the horse race, it's not too surprising because it really reflects the state of the Maine electorate in 2020 and pretty much what I expected it to be in 2024: not much different," Smith said. "Both parties are pretty much evenly balanced and you've got two candidates that are well known."
Biden won the statewide vote in 2020 but lost to Trump in Maine's 2nd Congressional District, allowing the Republican to pick up one of the state's four Electoral College votes. The UNH poll suggests a similar scenario would play out in Maine this year if the election were held today.
More than 80% of the Democratic respondents said they were either happy, hopeful or ecstatic after hearing that Biden had withdrawn from the race. Among Republicans, 85% were either enthusiastic or satisfied with Trump's selection of Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate.
Democrats who supported Harris as the party nominee, meanwhile, were divided who she should pick to be vice president. The leading candidates were Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (21%), Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (17%) and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (7%). But 26% of respondents said they weren't sure who would be best.
The online survey had a margin of error of 2.5% and featured responses from more than 900 "panel members" who are recruited by the survey center to participate in periodic polling plus more than 500 additional Maine residents. The composition of the respondent pool roughly mirrored the breakdown of registered Democrats, Republicans, Green Independents and unenrolled voters in Maine.
