In a gubernatorial race, campaigns often use the slightest hint of noteworthy economic news to go after the opposition. That's what happened today, following word that income growth in Maine was anemic during the first few months of the year.
The campaigns of Democrat Mike Michaud and independent Eliot Cutler say the data prove that Gov. Paul LePage's decision to consistently veto Medicaid expansion has hurt income growth in Maine. But the governor says income growth, fueled by welfare expansion, is not the sort of growth Maine ought to be looking to emulate.
The numbers at the center of all the political back and forth come courtesy of the BEA - the Bureau of Economic Analysis - at the U.S. Department of Commerce. On Tuesday, the BEA released the latest information on state income growth. The data, which could still be revised, shows that personal incomes in Maine went up by just half a percent in the first three months of the year.
It's the lowest rate of growth among the six New England states, and ranks 39th nationally. Adrienne Bennett is Gov. LePage's press secretary.
"You can't take taxpayer money and give it to other people and calculate that as personal income growth," Bennett says. "And that's exactly what's being done here. It's actually an increase in welfare."
As part of its personal income calculations, the BEA counts not just earnings, dividends and interest, but also something called transfer receipts. This is the money that flows to states from the federal government for programs like Medicare, Social Security, unemployment and Medicaid.
Transfer receipts went up $41 billion in the first quarter, compared to just a $4 billion increase in the last three months of 2013. The jump is due, in part, to states agreeing to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act - something LePage has refused to do.
"We find that when you are able to reduce welfare benefits and increase in other areas like real jobs - construction, manufacturing, where we are seeing real growth - that's a positive," Bennett says.
Bennett notes that the unemployment rate continues to fall and that Maine outpaced the nation in net earnings growth in the first quarter. But one of the governor's opponents in the fall campaign, independent Eliot Cutler, says LePage is trying to mask the deficiencies in his own economic record by targeting the state's most vulnerable citizens.
"He's now thrown into what he calls welfare Social Security, Medicare and all kinds of other payments to which people who have worked their entire lives are entitled," Cutler says. "And he's doing this in order to try to find a method of showing that Maine's economy is doing well."
Cutler says while there has been some improvement in recent years, Maine's economy continues to lag behind those in most other states and simply isn't recovering fast enough.
David Farmer, a senior adviser to Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Michaud, says LePage's refusal to expand Medicaid will make a more robust rebound all the more difficult. "That decision is costing the state about $900,000 a day in lost revenues," he says. "Not only are we putting at risk people's health, but we're putting at risk our economy. Period. No question. Those numbers are facts."
Some economists, though, question whether expanded Medicaid funding and other so-called "transfer receipts" really impact income growth all that much on a quarter-to-quarter basis.
"It's such a volatile number that I'm not sure it means much of anything," says Charlie Colgan, professor of public policy at the University of Southern Maine's Muskie School.
Since 2010, notes Colgan, growth in personal incomes has been all over the map. "The argument about whether to expand Medicaid is obviously, clearly, a big partisan issue," he says. "I'm not sure these numbers support it one way or the other."
It's a theme, though, that the gubernatorial campaigns will likely continue to hammer on, as the race progresses.