The campaigning in this year's election is nearly over and, for early-voting Mainers, so is the balloting.
What remains is the vote counting and the outcome.
For a preview of Tuesday's contest, Morning Edition Irwin Gratz spoke with University of Maine political science professor Mark Brewer, who says in Maine, as in the nation, there appears to have been little movement in the race for the presidency.
This interview has been edited for clarity.
Brewer: Most people coming into this race would have said that the Democratic candidate, whether it was Joe Biden, when it was Biden, and then eventually when it was Vice President Harris, that the Democrat would win statewide, that the Democrat would win Maine's 1st Congressional District, and that Donald Trump would probably win Maine's 2nd Congressional District, as he did in the last two presidential races. And I think that's still true.
Gratz: We also hear from some that the Electoral College advantages small states, which would be ignored if we rely solely on the national popular vote. But here we are in Maine. We're a small state. We've had no visit this season from either of the major candidates, not even very many from surrogates. So is it really true that the Electoral College works to a state like Maine's benefit?
There is some truth to the fact that the Electoral College advantages small states a little bit, but that statement is often overblown. What the Electoral College really benefits are states where the race is going to be close, swing states, over any other kind of state.
We've got two U.S. House races this year. Would you agree that they're kind of fundamentally different?
Yeah, they're absolutely fundamentally different. I mean, Maine's 1st Congressional District race is not a race, right? I mean, it's a foregone conclusion that Chellie Pingree is going to get reelected. It's hard to see a Republican, or even an independent, for that matter, winning Maine's 1st Congressional District. That district gets more and more Democratic each election cycle. Even, I suppose you could conjure up the perfect Republican candidate in a lab, and I think they'd struggle to win Maine's 1st CD. On the other hand, Maine's 2nd Congressional District is one of the most competitive House races in the country. We've seen, you know, huge amounts of outside money coming in as a result of that, and in an electoral cycle where it is virtually guaranteed that whichever party ends up controlling the House of Representatives is going to do so by a relatively thin margin, that makes Maine's 2nd Congressional District not only important in Maine, but important nationally as well.
The incumbent Democrat, Jared Golden, I know, has been working very hard over the years to kind of reassure the conservative-leaning voters in that district that he's not beholden to Democratic initiatives. Might that hurt him ultimately, with the Democratic base in that district?
I'm sure it doesn't make the Democratic base in the 2nd Congressional District very happy when Rep. Golden makes statements like that. And I'm sure that for some of those voters, you know, maybe they kind of stomp their feet a little bit and say, 'Well, I can't support Rep. Golden.' But at the end of the day, what are they going to do? Are they going to vote for Austin Theriault? Probably not. Are they going to stay home? Maybe. But generally speaking, you know, those kinds of voters tend to be pretty committed voters, and as you get closer to Election Day, when push comes to shove, might have to swallow hard, but they're going to choose the choice of their party, even if it's not, in their view, perfect over voting for the alternative party, especially when political polarization is so high.
We've got legislative elections this year. Any sense of where that's going to go?
Maine Legislative races are really the kind of classic low-information races. Unless you know somebody who has got their ear to the ground in the district that you're looking at, it's hard to say for sure with any certainty where races are going to go. From what I'm hearing and seeing out there, I think that it's starting to be generally accepted that the Democrats are going to keep control in the state Senate — not necessarily individual races, but, you know, kind of control over the over the Senate as a whole. I think the House sounds much more like a toss up, right? And the margin there is pretty tight as it is. It wouldn't surprise me to see either side come out in control of the Maine House once the dust settles after Election Day.
As you know, a lot of people are worried about what's going to happen after next Tuesday. Is there any indication that here in Maine, especially, Republicans are worried about how our elections are held, how our ballots will be counted?
Well, we're certainly hearing, you know, from some Republicans, you know, some echoes of the national concerns about ballot security and vote fraud. You know, that's being parroted at the very top of the Republican Party, and has been now for years, despite very little, if any, evidence to support those claims. I think when I first came to Maine 20 years ago, Maine politics was considerably different than national politics, and you know, it was still, you know, kind of a very pragmatic, a very collegial, a very civil political atmosphere in the state of Maine. That's changed over time. Maine is still probably more civil than the nation, but that's become less so. I think we can safely still say that, you know, Maine is less likely than some other places in the country to see post-election unrest. But that being said, there were a number of Mainers who have been either charged and or convicted in the Jan. 6 activities in Washington, D.C. So maybe we shouldn't be as confident in saying that Maine will be different. I hope I'm right, but I'm not sure that I am.
